Leicester’s title win was five times less likely than man on the moon

Leicester winning the Premier League title: the longest-odds success that has ever been gambled on.

The Foxes were rated by bookmakers last August as 5,000-1 to finish top of the table, but that’s exactly what was confirmed as Chelsea fought back to draw with Tottenham on Monday night.

Those odds mean that if the Premier League continued every year from now until 7016, by the bookmakers’ estimation, Leicester would win it, once. 

Leicester City’s players celebrate wildly after being confirmed as Premier League champions on Monday

Foxes skipper Wes Morgan (centre) blows a kiss after scoring against Manchester United at Old Trafford

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Equally, had the Premier League started in 2984 BC, or around the time Stonehenge was built, and been played every year since, the bookmakers believe Leicester would win it, once. 

Only a few dozen people were brave enough – or foolish enough – to risk money at that price. Leicester fan Leigh Herbert was one.

He bet £5 to win £25,000, and although he cashed out £2 of it for £5,680 with nine games left, the other £3 has earned him another £11,594 after Claudio Ranieri’s men got over the line.

Bookies around the world say it is the longest-odds success that has ever been gambled on, not just in the world of sport but for any event of any genre. 

And they were left counting the cost after Eden Hazard’s goal prevented Tottenham from earning the victory they required at Stamford Bridge. 

Sky Bet said it had paid out a record £4.6million to gamblers, saying it was an industry loser with 128 people backing City at the longest price.

Eden Hazard’s stunning goal against Tottenham on Monday night ensured Leicester were crowned champions

Supporters celebrate on the streets of Leicester after seeing their club clinch their first ever top-tier title

LEICESTER’S ODDS NEXT SEASON

Leicester are more likely to get relegated than retain their Premier League title, according to the bookmakers.

Here are the odds on the Foxes for next season, courtesy of betway:

Top-four finish – 7/1

Win the Premier League – 40/1

Get relegated – 28/1 

Win the Capital One Cup – 14/1

Win the FA Cup – 16/1

Win the Champions League – 66/1

Win the treble (PL, FAC, COC) – 1000/1 

Sky Bet’s Sandro Di Michele said: ‘The unthinkable has become reality and we’re facing a paying out the sort of liability that you joke about at the start of the season.

‘We’re now bracing ourselves for more punters looking to get on long-price outright odds, but Leicester certainly won’t be 5,000/1 next season!’

Betfred boss Fred Done was the first man to pay out on City winning the title and says he will now offer 5,000-1 on newly-promoted Burnley replicating their achievement next season.

‘Some people might say that we’ll never learn but I just can’t see a huge shock like Leicester’s fantastic success happening again,’ he said.

‘The big boys will rally for sure this summer having suffered bloodied noses. Inspirational Leicester have given all so called smaller clubs hope with the question ‘why not us?’ being asked in boardrooms up and down the land.’

Tottenham’s players were left deflated after conceding a decisive goal to rivals Chelsea at Stamford Bridge

Leicester fans celebrate their historic title triumph outside the home of star striker Jamie Vardy on Monday

William Hill said it had lost £2.2million as a result.

‘Leicester’s 5,000/1 victory has smashed all bookmaking records and in the process cost us a £2.2m loss – our worst individual day’s result on a single sport since Frankie Dettori rode all seven winners at Ascot in September 1996 and cost us over £8m and the industry £50m,’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

Hill’s are pricing Leicester at 25/1 for the title next season and at 16/1 to go down. The bookmaker added that its largest bet on Leicester was £20 at 5,000/1 and the smallest 5p at the same price.

Bet365 said it was now pricing Leicester at 100/1 to win the Champions League. Spokesman Steve Freeth said: ‘The dream has become reality and Leicester City will be the toast of a number of punters after pulling off the biggest sports betting shock of all-time – to the tune of over £3m in our case.’

HERE’S HOW LEICESTER’S TITLE WIN COMPARES WITH OTHER SUCCESSES

5,000-1: Leicester in August 2015 to win the the 2015-16 Premier League title.

2,500-1: The odds at which a grandfather, Peter Edwards, wagered £50 in the year 2000 that his grandson, Harry, then three, would one day play football for Wales. Wilson, now a 19-year Liverpool winger, made his Wales debut aged in October 2013, aged 16, winning his granddad £125,000.

1000-1: In 1964, a man from Preston called David Threlfall bet £10 that a man would walk on the moon before the end of the decade. He had been inspired by J F Kennedy, the president of the US, saying more than once that it was an aim. It famously happened in 1969. Threlfall won £10,000 (worth £156,600 today) and bought himself a sports car, in which he was killed in a crash.

In 1964, David Threlfall bet £10 that a man would walk on the moon before the end of the decade

Threlfall won £10,000 (worth £156,600 today) and spent the money on a sports car which he later died in

999-1: 1WIN The longest odds successfully overcome by a US sports team in a major league, by the St Louis Cardinals of MLB baseball to win the 2011 World Series. They looked dead and buried during the regular season but secured last-gasp wild card qualification for the post-season, then beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the division series, the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series and the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

500-1: The longest known odds on a single football match upset (according to William Hill), when the USA beat England 1-0 in Belo Horizonte at the 1950 World Cup, courtesy of Joe Gaetjens’ goal.

500-1: The odds on an England victory on the final morning of the Third Test of the 1981 Ashes series against Australia. The tourists seemed in such a strong position for victory, a win was all but assured. Ian Botham and Bob Willis had other ideas and pulled off an astonishing comeback. Australia’s Dennis Lillee and Rod Marsh had bet on England for a joke and won £7,500.

England were 500-1 to beat rivals Australia on the final morning of the Third Test of the 1981 Ashes

300-1: The longest Super Bowl odds converted into success from the start of a season, by the St Louis Rams in the 1999 NFL campaign. In 1998 the Rams posted a 4-12 win-loss record. Then pre-season they lost Trent Green, their star quarter-back on a new $17.5m contract, to a long-term knee injury. But they posted a 13-3 regular season record and won all three play-offs games for glory.

250-1: The longest odds on a winning horse in any race in Britain since records began. This seems utterly extraordinary given there have been around 2 million races since the 1600s. But it is true: the longest priced winner was an animal called Equinoctial in the 2.45 at Kelso race course, in a novices hurdle over 2 miles and 6 furlongs on Wednesday 21 November 1990. By comparison, the longest odds winners of the Grand National were all 100-1 shots including Foinavon (1967) and Mon Mome (2009). The longest odds Derby winners were all also 100-1 shots: betting Jeddah (1898), Signorinetta (1908) and 1WIN (1winchile-Casino.xyz) Aboyeur (1913).

150-1: This was the price defied, by among others, Goran Ivanisevic (to win the men’s Wimbledon title in 2001 as a wild card), Greece at Euro 2004, and Jeremy Corbyn to become the leader of the Labour Party last year. All three polarised opinion on their way to winning, and all came from left field.

42-1: The odds on Buster Douglas to beat Mike Tyson in 1990, which he did, in what is considered one of the greatest sporting shocks of all time. Not that the price reflected it. Or that it is a patch on Leicester.

Buster Douglas was 42-1 to beat Mike Tyson in 1990 before he upset the odds and Iron Mike for that matter

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Leicester City gave us back all that we love about football:… Leicester set to bank staggering £170m after sealing Premier… Claudio Ranieri refuses to get carried away by Leicester… King Claudio Ranieri! European papers pay tribute to…

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